According to the market weekly report released by market maker Wintermute (@wintermute_t), the macro and crypto markets experienced multiple shocks over the past week:<\/p>\n
On the macro level, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% with a 9-3 vote. Officials Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan rarely voted together to support a 25bp rate hike, marking dissent at the second meeting since Chairman Warsh took office. The 30-year US Treasury yield once touched 5.24%, hitting a new high since July 2007, while the 10-year yielded 4.67%. The yield curve bear-steepened, indicating market doubts about the Federal Reserve's inflation credibility.<\/p>\n
On the stock market level, AI leveraged fund Situational Awareness (under Leopold Aschenbrenner) encountered margin calls due to leverage as high as 400%. Its size plummeted from $45 billion in early July to about $10 billion, forced to sell all public positions to Citadel at a discount. Long positions in AI infrastructure such as SK Hynix and CoreWeave fell sharply, partially explaining the reason for the continuous decline in chip stocks in July.<\/p>\n
On the crypto level, BTC fell 2.84% weekly and ETH fell 3.63% weekly, but Wintermute believes major sellers are nearly exhausted, and the painful trade direction has turned upward. ETH has outperformed BTC for two consecutive months,<\/p>\n
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