BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said the debt-fueled artificial intelligence infrastructure boom could end in a 2008-style credit crisis and predicted the resulting government liquidity response could drive Bitcoin (BTC) to $1 million or higher.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In a Tuesday blog post, Hayes said<\/a> investors have mistakenly treated spending on data centers and power infrastructure as high-growth technology investment rather than leveraged real estate. He said he expects lenders to finance excessive construction before a slowdown in AI capital expenditure exposes weaker borrowers.\u00a0<\/p>\n The thesis connects the trillion-dollar expansion of AI infrastructure to a potential new source of crypto-market liquidity. However, Hayes\u2019 predicted crisis, government bailout and subsequent BTC rally remain speculative.\u00a0<\/p>\n Hayes described the AI boom as a \u201ccredit story like 2008 and not an earnings story like 2000.\u201d He said BTC could remain between $60,000 and $70,000, with possible downside to $50,000, before the credit cycle and resulting liquidity response drive a recovery. Hayes also forecast that Ether (ETH) would reach $5,000 by year-end and said Maelstrom intends to build a significant position while selling out-of-the-money ETH put options.<\/p>\n Hayes\u2019 latest outlook builds on his earlier views on AI\u2019s competing effects on crypto liquidity. On May 13, he said US-China competition in AI would encourage bank lending<\/a> and fiat creation, benefiting Bitcoin. On June 4, Hayes sold HYPE and NEAR after warning<\/a> that major AI listings could divert capital from crypto.<\/p>\n The scale of commitments underpinning the AI boom is already visible. On Tuesday, Reuters reported<\/a> that Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Amazon and Alphabet have committed about $1.09 trillion to leases that have not yet commenced, primarily for data centers.\u00a0<\/p>\n The commitments are nearly four times the roughly $285 billion in lease liabilities already recognized by the companies. However, Reuters noted that the $1.09 trillion cannot simply be treated as debt because it represents undiscounted payments spread across several years.\u00a0<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Iran war, AI spending could push Bitcoin back to $126K this year: Hayes<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n Still, the financial strain is uneven. Oracle\u2019s debt was about 4.3 times its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, while Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta had ratios below one, according<\/a> to a separate Reuters analysis.\u00a0<\/p>\n S&P Global analyst Andrew Chang said Oracle\u2019s data-center leases, which run for 15 to 19 years, pose a key risk because its customer contracts last no more than five years.\u00a0<\/p>\n Magazine: <\/strong><\/em>Why Meta is choosing partners over power in its 2026 stablecoin push<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n Related:<\/strong> Bitcoin price<\/a> \u00b7 BTC live chart<\/a> \u00b7 Ethereum price<\/a> \u00b7 ETH gas fee<\/a> \u00b7 Bitcoin price today<\/a> \u00b7 Top 10 cryptocurrencies<\/a><\/p>\nBig Tech locks in $1 trillion of future leases<\/h2>\n