\u201cThe reality is that Washington is always late to major technology shifts, and it has rarely mattered as much as people feared,\u201d said Hougan.\u00a0<\/p>\n
His comments come as the Senate faces an Aug. 5 deadline<\/a> to advance the landmark crypto market structure bill<\/a> before its summer recess, with many concerned that failure to pass this week could see the bill pushed into next year as lawmakers focus on the midterm elections in November.\u00a0<\/p>\n Market observers are increasingly pessimistic about the CLARITY Act\u2019s passage this year. In July, Galaxy Research lowered<\/a> its probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 30%, while Polymarket currently shows a 23% chance of it being signed into law this year, down from 82% in February.\u00a0<\/p>\n On July 24, NYDIG global head of research Greg Cipolaro said<\/a> the latest draft was more complete but still lacked sufficient bipartisan support.<\/p>\n \u201cThe central investor takeaway is that Republicans have produced a substantially more complete bill, but not yet one with a credible path to 60 votes,\u201d Cipolaro said.<\/p>\n According to sources speaking to Punchbowl News, without signs of progress from the White House on a bipartisan ethics deal<\/a>, and movement on illicit finance and stablecoin yield, Senate Democrats will deny cloture for the crypto bill.\u00a0<\/p>\n Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 are at 23%. Source: <\/em>Polymarket<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n Hougan said failure to pass the bill will put it in a \u201cwalking dead\u201d state, stalled, but not permanently defeated. He said there is some hope that the bill could pass in September, or even in December, when Congress returns for a lame duck session.<\/p>\n \u201cCongress often bundles multiple bills into a year-end \u201comnibus\u201d package, forcing legislators to vote on a single bill that includes things they like and things they hate. Maybe the Clarity Act can pass that way.\u201d<\/p>\n If the CLARITY Act fails to pass this year, Hougan said that the industry will fall back to the SEC-CFTC\u2019s joint interpretation issued in March, which classifies Bitcoin and other assets as digital commodities and replaces the SEC\u2019s 2019 staff guidance.\u00a0<\/p>\n SEC Chair Paul Atkins reinforced this last week, saying his agency is \u201cready, willing, and able to come out with rules that address the same issues as CLARITY and other aspects of the crypto market.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>CLARITY Act failure could send crypto valuations lower: Bernstein<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n However, the rules issued by the two regulators aren\u2019t as durable as legislation, and could be challenged in court or reversed by a future administration. Atkins even acknowledged this in March when the two agencies released the interpretation.\u00a0<\/p>\n Related:<\/strong> Bitcoin price<\/a> \u00b7 BTC live chart<\/a> \u00b7 Ethereum price<\/a> \u00b7 ETH gas fee<\/a> \u00b7 Bitcoin price today<\/a> \u00b7 Top 10 cryptocurrencies<\/a><\/p>\nProspects for CLARITY this year fade<\/h2>\n
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<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\u201cCrypto will be fine,\u201d Bitwise\u2019s Hougan says<\/h2>\n
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